Blowback: China's Weapons Proliferation in Africa
China's continued weapons exports to Africa undermine its economic and security interests on the continent. Ironically, this could prompt an even greater Chinese presence there.
A Chinese armed personnel carrier (APC) on the streets of Harare, Zimbabwe. Image source
China has become Africa's largest arms supplier, surpassing Russia earlier this year. This comes amid Beijing's rapidly expanding economic influence in the continent, where it invested nearly $22 billion dollars last year in construction, mining, and more through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the lax means by which China exports weapons to Africa frequently clashes with the interests of its security partners and investments there, leading to unintended consequences.
China's Multifaceted Security Role in Africa
Between 2019 and 2023, China delivered major arms consignments to 21 sub-Saharan African countries. According to some estimates, China has equipped seven out of every ten African militaries to some degree. Chinese arms merchants offer increasingly attractive deals to African buyers due to their lower prices, flexible financing arrangements, and lack of concern over matters such as usage and human rights abuses. For example, Nigerian Defense Chief Christopher Musa implicitly criticized the US and other Western countries for holding back arms sales to his country this February. Conversely, China has delivered 300 armored vehicles, tanks, and drones to the Nigerian military since 2020.
China also offers military training, and General Musa and 17 other defense ministers or chiefs across the continent have graduated from these programs. Fifty of Africa's 54 countries currently participate in Chinese-led military training courses, and Beijing intends to increase joint exercises and involvement in security matters as part of efforts to become Africa's preferred security partner. The fact that many of these weapons deals are tied to infrastructure projects creates further incentives for African countries to sign agreements with Beijing.
Observers frequently criticize the Chinese military's lack of combat experience and the limited battlefield testing of its equipment. In Africa, China has been trying to gain both. China's involvement in UN peacekeeping missions across the continent offers Chinese units a chance to gain combat experience. Beijing has deployed at least 40 naval task forces to Africa since 2008 and is now the world's second-largest contributor to the UN peacekeeping budget. Meanwhile, Chinese weapons systems see actual combat in Africa, allowing defense contractors to refine and hone their products over time. In Djibouti, China's first overseas naval base became fully operational in 2017 following Beijing's repeated denial of its existence for military use. Although China claims to use the base for anti-piracy measures and to support peacekeeping operations, it contains a pier that can accommodate an aircraft carrier, and personnel deployed there have used drones and lasers to interfere with US military operations in the area. In 2019, allegations emerged that Chinese personnel attempted to infiltrate Camp Lemonnier, a nearby US naval base in Djibouti.
Chinese peacekeepers were first deployed to South Sudan in 2015. It was the first deployment of Chinese infantry in an external peacekeeping role. Image Source
Last year, Chinese state-owned defense corporation Norinco established an office in Senegal in an effort to expand into the West African market. The company has offices in Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa and plans to establish branches in Mali and Côte d'Ivoire. For over a decade, Norinco has sold combat and logistics aircraft, helicopters, battleships and patrol vessels, air defense systems, drones, artillery systems, tanks, small arms, and more. This expansion into the African market comes amid Russia's diminished capacity to export weapons due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions that add significant strain to doing business abroad.
There has been a recent renewal of tensions between the US and China over the latter's ambition to have a permanent naval base on the Atlantic Ocean, on the continent's western coasts. The US has urged Equatorial Guinea and Gabon to reject Beijing's push to establish an overseas Chinese military base there. China is likely focusing more on Equatorial Guinea at the moment, given the political turbulence in Gabon following the ouster of a long-time political dynasty last year; Gabon still seems open to the idea. The US and other Western countries are also concerned about China potentially having a foothold in the Atlantic while having more significant influence over critical waterways in the Indian Ocean. China has the world's largest naval force, 234 warships, and thousands of paramilitary fishing vessels. Although its capability pales compared to the United States, these bases could become staging grounds for future conflicts and for China to exercise control over maritime resources.
In 2022, China proposed a Global Security Initiative (GSI), which the US Department of Defense claims has substantial support in Africa. The proposed initiative, frequently presented as an alternative to the US-led global security paradigm, comes after decades of Chinese involvement in Africa without conditions or criticisms of the recipient state's human rights record, environmental considerations, or other factors. Similarly, Chinese arms sales come without strings attached, making them easier to procure. Although China works with African governments to prevent the illicit flow of weapons there, its lack of arms tracking or restrictions on transfers by Chinese companies produces unforeseen consequences for Beijing and its African partners.
The Chinese and US military bases in Djibouti (Horn of Africa) are just a few miles apart. Image Source
Speculative image of the potential location of Chinese naval bases. (note that some of the graphics may not be updated as of 2024). Image Source
Unintended Consequences
Although China's investment and military support in Africa is generally welcomed by governments there, they have also resulted in unintended consequences for these governments and Beijing. Since 2002, terrorism in Africa has surged by over 100,000%, with over 23,000 people killed in terrorist incidents last year. In several instances, Chinese merchants have been involved in the illegal financing operations and arms procurement of these terror groups, sometimes to the detriment of Beijing's regional investments. These incidents are mainly due to Beijing's lax legal standards on arms exports and lack of oversight of its overseas business operations.
Terrorist groups frequently involve themselves in illicit local economies to fund their operations. For example, Mali's Jam'a Nusrat Ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, is involved in mining, logging, and other illicit trades. Most of Mali's illegally exported rosewood goes to China, with Chinese traders there allegedly involved in timber trafficking and widespread logging. Last year, a Kenyan anti-terror police unit arrested a local trader for allegedly procuring Chinese arms on behalf of Somalia-based terror group al-Shabaab. In Somalia, officials have seized Chinese-made drones, explosives, and other military equipment from al-Shabaab operatives.
China's illegal arms transfers have produced unintended consequences for its investments in Africa. This year, the Central African Republic (CAR) suspended the license of a Chinese gold and diamond mining company due to its alleged cooperation with local armed militias, including an anti-government outfit that reportedly killed nine Chinese workers at a gold mining operation in the country in 2023. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), experts have found Chinese weapons on both sides of the growing conflict in the country's rugged and mineral-rich eastern foothills. The DRC holds over 70% of the world's known cobalt reserves, a key component in the green energy technologies China exports in vast quantities.
An Islamic State West Africa Province uses a Chinese-made rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launcher. Image Source
Conclusion
As China continues to export arms to Africa without limits, the consequences for its regional interests and those of its partners could similarly proliferate over time amid the region's growing and widespread insecurity. As China continues to make significant inroads into Africa, the likelihood that its lax arms export practices will continue to clash with its business interests there could prompt further security involvement by Beijing. With China now planning to construct a naval base in West Africa, this process is already underway. Â