Airstrikes on Somalia and the Specter of Iranian Influence in the Horn of Africa
With Iranian proxies having disrupted access to the Red Sea, an increasingly Tehran-linked al-Shabaab could do the same in Somalia
Somali-based al-Shabaab (the youth) maintains a powerful fighting force that threatens Somalia and the region at large. Source
US forces recently targeted al-Shabaab militants in Somalia amid growing concerns over disruptions to international shipping traffic and an intensifying civil war in the country. With ships now being diverted around the Horn of Africa through Somali waters, the prospect of a re-emergence of piracy could further impact global security, especially amid a growing body of evidence that indicates Iranian involvement in the region.
On January 24, US and Somali National Army forces carried out an airstrike in the central Somalian town of Galhareri, killing at least 20 al-Shabaab militants. This comes on the heels of a January 21 strike by the Somali National Army that killed at least 35 al-Shabaab operatives in a house near Kismayo, reportedly using a Turkish-made drone. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) carried out a total of 15 airstrikes in conjunction with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2023. Although airstrikes on Somali territory are nothing new, these come amid increased global attention to the Somali coast as Yemen-based Houthi militants across the Gulf of Aden disrupt international shipping traffic to the north.
The reemergence of piracy and its link to al-Shabaab
A map demonstrating the range of Somali pirate attacks in 2011. Source
Piracy off the Somali coast has re-entered the headlines in recent months. Having reached a peak of 212 attacks in 2011 and costing the global economy as much as US $18 billion annually during its heyday, Somali piracy was reported to have “almost completely stopped” as of last September due to collective action on the part of the international community and Somali federal authorities. This collective action was spearheaded by the world’s most powerful navies, including those of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China. However, with the United States and its European allies increasingly at odds with Russia and China, it remains to be seen whether such collective action can be sustainable in the long term.
Instances of Somali piracy are now on the rise: November saw the hijacking the Iranian fishing vessel Almeraj 1 and the Israeli-linked tanker Central Park. Although a distress signal sent from the Central Park resulted in the rescue of its crew and the detainment of the hijackers, the Iranian vessel remains in the hands of the pirates, who are demanding ransoms and are threatening to use it in further hijackings. Although some analysts argue that previously enacted measures will keep piracy from returning to peak levels, several more attacks have occurred in December and January. Al-Shabaab has long worked closely with Somali pirate gangs, who have previously helped them to smuggle people and weapons in and out of the country and contributed part of the ransom payments received from international interests to the terror group.
The recent rise in Somali piracy could be attributable to two factors. First is the diversion of international attention elsewhere amid major wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as increased disunity among the world powers. The second is that these instances could be linked to al-Shabaab’s efforts to gain further control over Somalia by raising funds and smuggling weapons, an endeavour that has previously demonstrated the group’s links to Tehran.
Al-Shabaab and the Iranian Nexus
A Houthi soldier wears a poster with the image of the deceased Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani. Al-Shabaab has been involved in weapons smuggling across the Gulf of Aden. Source
Evidence suggests al-Shabaab also shares extensive links to Iran. Tehran reportedly coordinated with the group to supply weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, and similarly, a 2021 study found that Iranian weapons in Yemen found their way to al-Shabaab after having been smuggled across the Gulf of Aden. Despite their religious differences – al-Shabaab is Sunni whereas the Iranian regime is Twelver Shi’a – al-Shabaab’s links to Iran and its proxies reportedly go back to its early years: in 2006, al-Shabaab fighters joined Hezbollah to fight against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon that year. More recently, a report by the Emirates Policy Center claims that Iranian weapons and funds were used by al-Shabaab to carry out attacks in 2019 and 2020 and cites a UN report that found that al-Shabaab uses Iran as a transit point to illegally sell Somali coal on the global market. In this way, Iran serves as a key partner to al-Shabaab both financially and militarily.
Houthi attacks on the Red Sea have caused ships to be increasingly rerouted around the Horn of Africa, which is dominated by the Somali coastline: this puts them at increased risk of attacks by al-Shabaab-linked pirates in the region. Since last November, a total of five Iranian fishing vessels have been captured by Somali pirate groups: this is more vessels than any other country since the resurgence in activity and it is possible that these hijackings were staged by Tehran as a means of smuggling more weapons to al-Shabaab. If al-Shabaab has acquired some of the more advanced weaponry used by the Houthis, such as drones and anti-ship missiles, it could represent a major risk to international container ship traffic in the region moving forward.
An emerging showdown that could bring al-Shabaab closer to Tehran
A map showing areas of Somalia either fully or partially under al-Shabaab control. Note the northern outposts, including the city of Bosasso: these lay on the Gulf of Aden, connecting al-Shabaab to Houthi militants in Yemen to the north. Source
With African Union forces set to withdraw from Somalia at the end of this year, the stage is being set for a civil war between the Mogadishu-based Somali federal government and al-Shabaab in the coming months. It is primarily for this reason that the UN lifted its arms embargo on Somalia last December, a move that will likely bring an influx of new weapons for the beleaguered Federal government forces. For this reason, al-Shabaab may continue to leverage its relationship with Tehran in exchange for weapons and financial support, and potentially do its bidding by assisting the Houthis in their attempts to disrupt shipping on the high seas.
Al-Shabaab remains a powerful force in East Africa. Controlling much of southern and central Somalia, including much of the country’s arable agricultural land, al-Shabaab is the largest and richest affiliate of al-Qaeda, which officially recognized the group in 2012. As such, al-Shabaab retains a force of some 12,000 fighters and has remained resilient in the face of an ongoing offensive by Somali federal forces, a long-term occupation by African Union forces, and extensive US airstrikes. With close links to Iran and the growing threat of piracy off Somali shores, al-Shabaab could oversee the addition of another dimension to the ongoing conflict in the Greater Middle East between Iran, Israel, and the United States. For this reason, Somalia could be making international headlines once again in the not too distant future.