Water Wars: The Growing Conflict Along India and China’s Disputed Borders
Tensions continue to rise between the world's two most populous countries over the most important resource on the planet.
Indian and Chinese soldiers face off in Galwan Valley in 2020. Source
On June 15, 2020, hundreds of Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed in the disputed border regions of Aksai Chin and Ladakh amid a series of border skirmishes. The soldiers, armed with rods, clubs, stones, and batons, engaged in hand-to-hand combat for hours in the dark. The clashes resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers, with several others captured and an unknown number of Chinese casualties. Intense clashes also occurred at the contested Pangong Lake and along the disputed borders of Tibet.
Border tensions between India and China—longstanding nuclear powers—are rising steadily after decades of relative stability. Water is at the heart of this conflict in some of the highest-altitude areas on earth, and outcomes here could determine the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in the coming decades.
The Line of Control denotes the current India-Pakistan borders in disputed Jammu & Kashmir. The Line of Actual Control denotes the current India-China borders, which are also disputed. Source
Increased Militarization of the LAC
The Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China lacks official demarcation, allowing both countries to compete over contested territories. Key among these is Pangong Lake, where China launched its main offensive in its 1962 war against India, annexing Aksai Chin in the process. The 2020 clashes between the two countries were the first to result in deaths since the 1962 war.
A 1996 agreement between India and China requires both countries to refrain from deploying forces with modern weapons along the LAC. For this reason, both sides use "medieval-style" weapons in close hand-to-hand combat. However, the two countries also accused each other of using guns in the Ladakh clashes of 2020. Although both sides consistently meet to defuse tensions, India maintains that China's aggressive posturing and actions aggravate the situation. At the same time, China claims the border situation is "stable."
Border disputes between India and China are primarily rooted in British imperial agreements with the Tibetan government, which both countries contested following China's 1951 annexation of Tibet. Although many Tibetans claim Tibet existed as a distinct entity since the seventh or eighth centuries, China claims this was never the case, and this is the ongoing legal basis for Beijing's annexation of the territory. Despite sparse international legal recognition and questions as to their legal basis, China continues to press its claims along the Indian border.
In recent years, China's efforts to assert control over its border region include enhanced road connectivity as well as military bases and outposts. India also has over 50,000 soldiers deployed to the disputed border and a total of 120,000 troops within 100 km of the LAC. The Chinese side of the LAC is also heavily militarized with weaponry that includes air defense missile systems, anti-aircraft systems, and rocket launchers. China also populates its annexed regions with citizens from other parts of the country, constructing new settlements to accommodate them. India also does this in the areas it claims.
This month, India removed 10,000 soldiers from its Pakistani border and redeployed them to its contested border with China, creating a new 19,000-soldier border defense force supported by air assets and artillery. China responded to the deployment by claiming it was "not conducive to easing tensions." Since 2021, India has deployed at least 50,000 soldiers to the contested border region, constructing roads and bases while setting up new military commands and theaters and adopting upgraded military equipment specifically for high-altitude warfare, such as the Infantry Combat Vehicle BMP-2 Sarath.
India recently redeployed 10,000 troops to its de-facto border with China.
An existential matter for both countries
Although both India and China cite historical reasons for their claims, resources play an essential role, especially water. The Himalayan–Hindu Kush region possesses some of Asia's largest water sources and one of the world's largest water reserves from snow and ice outside the poles. Hundreds of millions in India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam rely daily on the vast river systems that stem from these glacial waters.
In China, the Yellow and Yangtze River systems – which stem from the Himalayas – serve as the cradle of Chinese civilization and feed some of the country's most important cities, including the ancient capital of Xi'an as well as major commercial centers such as Chongqing, Chengdu, and Shanghai. In India, these glacial waters form the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers, the latter of which is sacred to the Hindu faith and whose broader system gives life to the country's capital and largest city in the Delhi metropolitan region. For these reasons, the ongoing border conflict between Beijing and Delhi may be seen as a supreme and existential matter of national security for both countries.
This conflict is made more dangerous by both countries' track records regarding their neighbors' water rights. China currently deprives Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam of billions of cubic meters of water annually via its dams on the Mekong River, limiting the economic prospects of millions of people living downstream. Similarly, India uses dams in Kashmir to limit Pakistan's access to the Indus, which Pakistan claims is a violation of its 1960 agreement with India.
India and China are constructing hydroelectric dams that limit each other's access to freshwater. China is building a 'super dam' along the Zangbo River in Tibet, a primary source of the Brahmaputra River that flows through northeast India into Bangladesh to form the world's largest delta, upon which 130 million depend for freshwater. Moreover, India is building at least 12 hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh that will affect water flows into the Zangbo River on the Chinese side of the border. The closer these projects come to completion, the less water will flow to each country, increasing tensions between them.
The rivers that give life to much of Asia stem from glacial waters high in Himalayan mountains. Source
Conclusion
Growing nationalism and military buildups along the Sino-Indian border are increasing the chance of war between the two countries. With the West increasingly viewing India as a bulwark against China and deepening ties with New Delhi, the chances of a major conflict between India and China grow steadily. With water underpinning these tensions, this conflict is emerging as a zero-sum game. Moreover, it exemplifies other major water conflicts emerging in an increasingly arid world.