A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan looms large on the world stage. However, the enormous risks involved mean that Beijing probably won't take this decision lightly.
I'm really confused why the article states the island of Taiwan is 13,826 miles long. A quick look at Google Earth shows the farthest points are 236 miles apart, which would indicate the length of the island. Even if we consider the length of the shoreline as what was intended, that number is just over 600 miles. The article did not state territorial area. Not sure how one island can be construed to be 13,826 miles.
I've always been extremely puzzled why we even think Xi/China wants to invade Taiwan. I'm well aware of the history (my mother in law is Taiwanese) but Xi didn't outmaneuver Hu Jintao's allies by letting himself be pushed into rash choices by strong emotions. Hell, Xi has more personal reason to hate the CCP for sending him to work camp exile than Chang Kai Shek (sp?).
So let's look at it dispassionately. Of course, China is absolutely opposed to any recognition of Taiwan for both prestige and geopolitical reasons -- something the threats buy them as a kind of compromise response. It's also in the personal interests of authoritarian leaders to have an external military challenge/threat to justify their iron rule. But those both only suggest Xi wants to talk **as if** he might invade Taiwan.
OTOH even a successful invasion of Taiwan seems like it harms Xi. China benefits enormously from the presence of TSMC and other high tech companies in Taiwan. It's a gold mine of technical secrets they can harvest but any invasion will level all the fabs, send the talent fleeing and dry up the western tech transfer. China ends up with substantial casualties, under sanctions with a Taiwanese population that it can't, by rhetoric, treat as non-Han/Chinese but who present a big security threat.
Not to mention that a war is a great way to shake up power structures. A disaster could prompt others to remove Xi, a stunning success risks the creation of a Ceasar -- popular war hero with the allegiance of the military who can now seize power at home.
None of it makes any sense! Every rational consideration makes Taiwan a less appealing target of military intervention than Pakistan (access to Suez/Gulf w/o going through the straight near south china sea), Phillipines, Indonesia or a number of other places.
Ofc one can always get trapped by you rhetoric but Xi seems well in control.
Don't forget China has plenty of other historical wrongs it could choose to right. Russia stole a fair chunk of territory from China when they were too weak to do anything about it -- and the ethnic Chinese residents probably would see Chinese rule as an improvement. And unlike Taiwan where China losses the chance to siphon off quite a bit of future tech in a war the natural resources in the territory Russia holds are hard to blow up (while in the ground) and instead of sanctions China probably gets thanked by the west.
I think the biggest strategic gain is that China would break the first island chain and gain greater control over regional waters. That and the prestige factor. However, I think Tarun’s article makes it pretty clear that any such victory would likely be a pyrrhic one.
Strategic gain just means you're in a better position to fight a war in the future. Once you unpack the argument it's kinda silly:
China needs to invade Taiwan and provoke a high risk of conflict with the US because if they don't then in the future they are at risk of getting into a conflict with the US without controlling that military advantageous Island chain. WTF?!? They don't control those islands now so they would be provoking the very event they supposedly want to head off!
Indeed, they would be in a much better position defending against a threat staged in Taiwan than trying to launch an opposed amphibious assault.
Yes, as William Spaniel points out, sometimes shifting relative power can provoke an invasion. One reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now was that the growing wealth of Ukraine, dwindling Russian military might and their impending demographic cliff meant their window for success was rapidly fading.
But China is in the opposite situation. Even if they can't maintain their dramatic economic growth their relative military power is increasing -- especially their naval capabilities.
I've been hearing alot of analysts say they think, China will instead attempt a naval blockade of the island to economical choke them. Do you think that will happen, or if it will even work?
I'm really confused why the article states the island of Taiwan is 13,826 miles long. A quick look at Google Earth shows the farthest points are 236 miles apart, which would indicate the length of the island. Even if we consider the length of the shoreline as what was intended, that number is just over 600 miles. The article did not state territorial area. Not sure how one island can be construed to be 13,826 miles.
That was a mistake from the editing process where one number was accidentally replaced with another. My apologies.
I've always been extremely puzzled why we even think Xi/China wants to invade Taiwan. I'm well aware of the history (my mother in law is Taiwanese) but Xi didn't outmaneuver Hu Jintao's allies by letting himself be pushed into rash choices by strong emotions. Hell, Xi has more personal reason to hate the CCP for sending him to work camp exile than Chang Kai Shek (sp?).
So let's look at it dispassionately. Of course, China is absolutely opposed to any recognition of Taiwan for both prestige and geopolitical reasons -- something the threats buy them as a kind of compromise response. It's also in the personal interests of authoritarian leaders to have an external military challenge/threat to justify their iron rule. But those both only suggest Xi wants to talk **as if** he might invade Taiwan.
OTOH even a successful invasion of Taiwan seems like it harms Xi. China benefits enormously from the presence of TSMC and other high tech companies in Taiwan. It's a gold mine of technical secrets they can harvest but any invasion will level all the fabs, send the talent fleeing and dry up the western tech transfer. China ends up with substantial casualties, under sanctions with a Taiwanese population that it can't, by rhetoric, treat as non-Han/Chinese but who present a big security threat.
Not to mention that a war is a great way to shake up power structures. A disaster could prompt others to remove Xi, a stunning success risks the creation of a Ceasar -- popular war hero with the allegiance of the military who can now seize power at home.
None of it makes any sense! Every rational consideration makes Taiwan a less appealing target of military intervention than Pakistan (access to Suez/Gulf w/o going through the straight near south china sea), Phillipines, Indonesia or a number of other places.
Ofc one can always get trapped by you rhetoric but Xi seems well in control.
Don't forget China has plenty of other historical wrongs it could choose to right. Russia stole a fair chunk of territory from China when they were too weak to do anything about it -- and the ethnic Chinese residents probably would see Chinese rule as an improvement. And unlike Taiwan where China losses the chance to siphon off quite a bit of future tech in a war the natural resources in the territory Russia holds are hard to blow up (while in the ground) and instead of sanctions China probably gets thanked by the west.
I think the biggest strategic gain is that China would break the first island chain and gain greater control over regional waters. That and the prestige factor. However, I think Tarun’s article makes it pretty clear that any such victory would likely be a pyrrhic one.
Strategic gain just means you're in a better position to fight a war in the future. Once you unpack the argument it's kinda silly:
China needs to invade Taiwan and provoke a high risk of conflict with the US because if they don't then in the future they are at risk of getting into a conflict with the US without controlling that military advantageous Island chain. WTF?!? They don't control those islands now so they would be provoking the very event they supposedly want to head off!
Indeed, they would be in a much better position defending against a threat staged in Taiwan than trying to launch an opposed amphibious assault.
Yes, as William Spaniel points out, sometimes shifting relative power can provoke an invasion. One reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now was that the growing wealth of Ukraine, dwindling Russian military might and their impending demographic cliff meant their window for success was rapidly fading.
But China is in the opposite situation. Even if they can't maintain their dramatic economic growth their relative military power is increasing -- especially their naval capabilities.
Yes, that's much of the reason it would be a pyrrhic victory, if it were a victory at all
"reunification"
I've been hearing alot of analysts say they think, China will instead attempt a naval blockade of the island to economical choke them. Do you think that will happen, or if it will even work?
It’s possible, but a naval blockade constitutes an act of war, so it could result in exchanges and invoke a U.S. response.