A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan looms large on the world stage. However, the enormous risks involved mean that Beijing probably won't take this decision lightly.
I'm really confused why the article states the island of Taiwan is 13,826 miles long. A quick look at Google Earth shows the farthest points are 236 miles apart, which would indicate the length of the island. Even if we consider the length of the shoreline as what was intended, that number is just over 600 miles. The article did not state territorial area. Not sure how one island can be construed to be 13,826 miles.
I've always been extremely puzzled why we even think Xi/China wants to invade Taiwan. I'm well aware of the history (my mother in law is Taiwanese) but Xi didn't outmaneuver Hu Jintao's allies by letting himself be pushed into rash choices by strong emotions. Hell, Xi has more personal reason to hate the CCP for sending him to work camp exile than Chang Kai Shek (sp?).
So let's look at it dispassionately. Of course, China is absolutely opposed to any recognition of Taiwan for both prestige and geopolitical reasons -- something the threats buy them as a kind of compromise response. It's also in the personal interests of authoritarian leaders to have an external military challenge/threat to justify their iron rule. But those both only suggest Xi wants to talk **as if** he might invade Taiwan.
OTOH even a successful invasion of Taiwan seems like it harms Xi. China benefits enormously from the presence of TSMC and other high tech companies in Taiwan. It's a gold mine of technical secrets they can harvest but any invasion will level all the fabs, send the talent fleeing and dry up the western tech transfer. China ends up with substantial casualties, under sanctions with a Taiwanese population that it can't, by rhetoric, treat as non-Han/Chinese but who present a big security threat.
Not to mention that a war is a great way to shake up power structures. A disaster could prompt others to remove Xi, a stunning success risks the creation of a Ceasar -- popular war hero with the allegiance of the military who can now seize power at home.
None of it makes any sense! Every rational consideration makes Taiwan a less appealing target of military intervention than Pakistan (access to Suez/Gulf w/o going through the straight near south china sea), Phillipines, Indonesia or a number of other places.
Ofc one can always get trapped by you rhetoric but Xi seems well in control.
I've been hearing alot of analysts say they think, China will instead attempt a naval blockade of the island to economical choke them. Do you think that will happen, or if it will even work?
I'm really confused why the article states the island of Taiwan is 13,826 miles long. A quick look at Google Earth shows the farthest points are 236 miles apart, which would indicate the length of the island. Even if we consider the length of the shoreline as what was intended, that number is just over 600 miles. The article did not state territorial area. Not sure how one island can be construed to be 13,826 miles.
I've always been extremely puzzled why we even think Xi/China wants to invade Taiwan. I'm well aware of the history (my mother in law is Taiwanese) but Xi didn't outmaneuver Hu Jintao's allies by letting himself be pushed into rash choices by strong emotions. Hell, Xi has more personal reason to hate the CCP for sending him to work camp exile than Chang Kai Shek (sp?).
So let's look at it dispassionately. Of course, China is absolutely opposed to any recognition of Taiwan for both prestige and geopolitical reasons -- something the threats buy them as a kind of compromise response. It's also in the personal interests of authoritarian leaders to have an external military challenge/threat to justify their iron rule. But those both only suggest Xi wants to talk **as if** he might invade Taiwan.
OTOH even a successful invasion of Taiwan seems like it harms Xi. China benefits enormously from the presence of TSMC and other high tech companies in Taiwan. It's a gold mine of technical secrets they can harvest but any invasion will level all the fabs, send the talent fleeing and dry up the western tech transfer. China ends up with substantial casualties, under sanctions with a Taiwanese population that it can't, by rhetoric, treat as non-Han/Chinese but who present a big security threat.
Not to mention that a war is a great way to shake up power structures. A disaster could prompt others to remove Xi, a stunning success risks the creation of a Ceasar -- popular war hero with the allegiance of the military who can now seize power at home.
None of it makes any sense! Every rational consideration makes Taiwan a less appealing target of military intervention than Pakistan (access to Suez/Gulf w/o going through the straight near south china sea), Phillipines, Indonesia or a number of other places.
Ofc one can always get trapped by you rhetoric but Xi seems well in control.
"reunification"
I've been hearing alot of analysts say they think, China will instead attempt a naval blockade of the island to economical choke them. Do you think that will happen, or if it will even work?